On the other hand, the infamous Current Account Deficit (CAD) is a matter of intellectual debate. If you'd said “balance of payments” is unsustinable then it'd be a different debate. But to suggest CAD is unsustainable is in my humble opinion a paradox in itself. Because the maths is simple: if you couldn't finance it you wouldn't accumulate more CAD. It is because it is financeable that the Turks (and others) have been able to widen their CAD. I would draw your attention to the following items in the BOP calculation: FDI, portfolio investments and the “others” item, which was massive in Turkey's Q32011 figures. Bottomline, Turkey can finance its Balance of Payments (and in turn the CAD deficit) and will sustain it as long as its private sector can keep borrowing. If there's a problem along the line, it will be a credit problem, not a country event (i.e. private sector defaulting on loans granted by foreign public sector). I would strongly recommend you to see the Australian case in the CAD literature. All in all, I believe your article was a good one in terms of drawing attention to the dangers posed by the current Turkish confidence mixed with lack of depth and intellect. It is indeed dangerous. तुर्क विरोधी खेमे को उत्तेजित करता - तुर्की की शत्रुता ने कुर्द के साथ इजरायल के साथ ऐतिहासिक सम्बंधों में फिर से गर्मी ला दी है और ग्रीक, साइप्रस और अर्मीनिया के साथ इसके ठंडे पडे सम्बंधों में भी फिर से गर्मी ला दी है। इन सम्बंधों का प्रभाव स्थानीय स्तर पर ही नहीं होगा ऐसी खेमेबंदी से वाशिंगटन में भी तुर्कों के लिये कठिनाईयाँ बढ जायेंगी।
12.
On the other hand, the infamous Current Account Deficit (CAD) is a matter of intellectual debate. If you'd said “balance of payments” is unsustinable then it'd be a different debate. But to suggest CAD is unsustainable is in my humble opinion a paradox in itself. Because the maths is simple: if you couldn't finance it you wouldn't accumulate more CAD. It is because it is financeable that the Turks (and others) have been able to widen their CAD. I would draw your attention to the following items in the BOP calculation: FDI, portfolio investments and the “others” item, which was massive in Turkey's Q32011 figures. Bottomline, Turkey can finance its Balance of Payments (and in turn the CAD deficit) and will sustain it as long as its private sector can keep borrowing. If there's a problem along the line, it will be a credit problem, not a country event (i.e. private sector defaulting on loans granted by foreign public sector). I would strongly recommend you to see the Australian case in the CAD literature. All in all, I believe your article was a good one in terms of drawing attention to the dangers posed by the current Turkish confidence mixed with lack of depth and intellect. It is indeed dangerous. तुर्क विरोधी खेमे को उत्तेजित करता - तुर्की की शत्रुता ने कुर्द के साथ इजरायल के साथ ऐतिहासिक सम्बंधों में फिर से गर्मी ला दी है और ग्रीक, साइप्रस और अर्मीनिया के साथ इसके ठंडे पडे सम्बंधों में भी फिर से गर्मी ला दी है। इन सम्बंधों का प्रभाव स्थानीय स्तर पर ही नहीं होगा ऐसी खेमेबंदी से वाशिंगटन में भी तुर्कों के लिये कठिनाईयाँ बढ जायेंगी।
13.
On the other hand, the infamous Current Account Deficit (CAD) is a matter of intellectual debate. If you'd said “balance of payments” is unsustinable then it'd be a different debate. But to suggest CAD is unsustainable is in my humble opinion a paradox in itself. Because the maths is simple: if you couldn't finance it you wouldn't accumulate more CAD. It is because it is financeable that the Turks (and others) have been able to widen their CAD. I would draw your attention to the following items in the BOP calculation: FDI, portfolio investments and the “others” item, which was massive in Turkey's Q32011 figures. Bottomline, Turkey can finance its Balance of Payments (and in turn the CAD deficit) and will sustain it as long as its private sector can keep borrowing. If there's a problem along the line, it will be a credit problem, not a country event (i.e. private sector defaulting on loans granted by foreign public sector). I would strongly recommend you to see the Australian case in the CAD literature. All in all, I believe your article was a good one in terms of drawing attention to the dangers posed by the current Turkish confidence mixed with lack of depth and intellect. It is indeed dangerous. तुर्क विरोधी खेमे को उत्तेजित करता - तुर्की की शत्रुता ने कुर्द के साथ इजरायल के साथ ऐतिहासिक सम्बंधों में फिर से गर्मी ला दी है और ग्रीक, साइप्रस और अर्मीनिया के साथ इसके ठंडे पडे सम्बंधों में भी फिर से गर्मी ला दी है। इन सम्बंधों का प्रभाव स्थानीय स्तर पर ही नहीं होगा ऐसी खेमेबंदी से वाशिंगटन में भी तुर्कों के लिये कठिनाईयाँ बढ जायेंगी।
14.
On the other hand, the infamous Current Account Deficit (CAD) is a matter of intellectual debate. If you'd said “balance of payments” is unsustinable then it'd be a different debate. But to suggest CAD is unsustainable is in my humble opinion a paradox in itself. Because the maths is simple: if you couldn't finance it you wouldn't accumulate more CAD. It is because it is financeable that the Turks (and others) have been able to widen their CAD. I would draw your attention to the following items in the BOP calculation: FDI, portfolio investments and the “others” item, which was massive in Turkey's Q32011 figures. Bottomline, Turkey can finance its Balance of Payments (and in turn the CAD deficit) and will sustain it as long as its private sector can keep borrowing. If there's a problem along the line, it will be a credit problem, not a country event (i.e. private sector defaulting on loans granted by foreign public sector). I would strongly recommend you to see the Australian case in the CAD literature. All in all, I believe your article was a good one in terms of drawing attention to the dangers posed by the current Turkish confidence mixed with lack of depth and intellect. It is indeed dangerous. तुर्क विरोधी खेमे को उत्तेजित करता - तुर्की की शत्रुता ने कुर्द के साथ इजरायल के साथ ऐतिहासिक सम्बंधों में फिर से गर्मी ला दी है और ग्रीक, साइप्रस और अर्मीनिया के साथ इसके ठंडे पडे सम्बंधों में भी फिर से गर्मी ला दी है। इन सम्बंधों का प्रभाव स्थानीय स्तर पर ही नहीं होगा ऐसी खेमेबंदी से वाशिंगटन में भी तुर्कों के लिये कठिनाईयाँ बढ जायेंगी।
15.
As Prof. Murat Üçer of Koc University wrote in the Fall newsletter of the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM), A serious and probably quite painful 'adjustment' is inevitable in the short-term, in order to bring current account deficit to more 'normal' levels….This can't happen with a weaker currency alone; growth will also have to slow visibly. Second, an excessive CAD level points to a structural weakness in the economy. It simply attests to our inability as a nation, to put forth enough of a presence in the global supply chain of goods and services. Put differently, it implies that our average dollar-based income - per capita as well as per worker, which runs around $10,000 and $30,000, respectively - is simply too high, compared to our average productivity levels. By this interpretation, the current account deficit represents nothing but a structural deficit in our skills and institutions. Turkey simply is not the economic powerhouse it likes to think it is, and the humbling of Turkey's economic prospects presages a similar humiliation in its global standing. वैसे तो विदेशमंत्री अहमत देवतोग्लू कहते हैं कि “ तुर्की सभी घटनाओं के केंद्र में सही स्थिति में है” लेकिन एकेपी के शत्रुता के भाव ने पडोसियों के साथ “ शून्य समस्या” की उनकी नीति को व्यापक शत्रुता और सम्भावित सैन्य टकराव ( सीरिया, साइप्रस और इजरायल) में बदल दिया है । जैसे ही आर्थिक संकट उत्पन्न होगा एक समय का नाटो का औदाहरणिक सदस्य और भी भटक जायेगा और इसके संकेत स्वरूप एरडोगन को अपने मित्र ह्वुजो शावेज को अंगीकार करते देखा जा सकता है।
