A series of laboratory experiments to compare the accuracy of prediction markets, traditional meetings, the Delphi method, and the nominal group technique on a quantitative judgment task, found only small differences between these four methods.
22.
The opinions were converted to a statistical model using the Delphi method, Seaquist said, a process developed by the RAND Corp . during the Cold War to forecast intercontinental warfare and the technological advances of adversaries.
23.
For example, in one case reported by Basu and Schroeder ( 1977 ), the Delphi method predicted the sales of a new product during the first two years with inaccuracy of 3 4 % compared with actual sales.
24.
Later on, several extensions to the Delphi method were developed to address this problem, such as cross impact analysis, that takes into consideration the possibility that the occurrence of one event may change probabilities of other events covered in the survey.
25.
Unlike panel sessions, the iterative Delphi method allows the forecasting and assessment to be done without the effect of strong personalities or reputations influencing other panelists and also overcomes the difficulty of getting all experts together in a single time and place.
26.
The company, project manager Jack Seaquist said, assembled a team of former FBI and CIA agents and other veterans of foreign affairs, security, and intelligence, then folded their predictions into probability rankings using a military number-crunching process known as the " Delphi method ."
27.
A younger member of the Berlin Circle or Berlin School to leave Germany was Olaf Helmer who joined the RAND Corporation and played an important role in the development of the Delphi method used for predicting future trends, and other early forms of social technology.
28.
The most noted outcomes were published in the 1962 memorandum of the Rand Corporation, entitled " An experimental application of the Delphi method to the use of experts " by Norman Dalkey and Olaf Helmer, republished under the same title in " Management science " in 1963.
29.
The Delphi method relies on a panel of experts who reach consensus regarding the MCID . The expert panel is provided with information on the results of a trial and are requested to provide their best estimate of the MCID . Their responses are averaged, and this summary is sent back with an invitation to revise their estimates.
